MARKET

GOLD - THE ULTIMATE INVESTMENT

Both a consumer good and an investible asset, its performance is driven by four key factors and their interactions:

1

Economic expansion:
positive for consumption

2

Risk and uncertainty:
positive for investment

3

Opportunity cost:
negative for investment

4

Momentum: contingent on price and positioning

Driven by key economic variables such as GDP, inflation, interest rates, the US dollar and behaviour of competing financial assets.

INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS

1

A mild recession and weaker earnings have historically been gold-positive

2

Further weakening of the dollar as inflation recedes could provide support for gold

3

Chinese economic growth should improve next year, boosting consumer gold demand

4

Geopolitical flare-ups should continue to make gold a valuable tail risk hedge

5

Long-term bond yields are likely to remain high but at levels that have not hampered gold historically

6

The outlook for Gold appears positive for 2025 and beyond

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Canary Gold
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